Monday, 9 July 2018

My Strategy is Evolving


As it is over 3 years since I last reviewed my investing strategy, I thought maybe time for an update on where I am going with it.

Looking back to early 2013 when I started this blog, it is clear there has been quite a significant move. Back then I was focussed on a portfolio of individual higher yielding UK shares combined with a ‘basket’ of investment trusts to generate the natural income I required in retirement.

Fast forward to 2018 and the individual shares are all sold along with some of the investment trusts in both ISA and SIPP drawdown. They are replaced by a large portion of Vanguard index funds and a few more diversified ITs such as Scottish Mortgage, Mid Wynd, TR Property, HICL Infrastucture and Capital Gearing.

My circumstances have changed this year as I now receive my state pension. It will be £8,450 for the coming year and this is around £2,000 per year more than I had been expecting when I last reviewed my strategy in 2015 which has come as a pleasant surprise. It means I have less need for income from my investments - ISA and SIPP. This means I need to reassess my plans and make a few changes to my portfolio to reflect the new situation.

The Next Phase

My focus over the past 10 years has involved funding my decision to take early retirement from age 55 yrs. Therefore the plan had been to generate income from my investments to bridge the gap to state pension...and now that part of the journey is mission accomplished!

There now needs to be a plan for the next decade and beyond which takes account of my changed situation.

I follow a fairly simple lifestyle - it seems to me the easiest way to grow wealthier is learning to live with less, because living with less has a higher success rate than attempting to make a fortune, and fortunes tend to push aspirations and desires higher anyway. I am lucky in that I seem to always have had an ability to live within my means so, whilst my lifestyle remains modest - some would say frugal - this is more by design and choice. I accept most people would happily spend the additional money on more holidays, clothes, new car maybe and a host of other delights. However for someone who likes a simple life, spending money on these things would be a bit pointless. Plato said "The greatest wealth is to live content with little".

One book that had a big impact for me in the 1970s was Erich Fromm 'To Have or To Be' which I suspect is as relevant today as it was 40 years ago. I probably did not realise at the time but it no doubt shaped the way I look at life.

As generating income is no longer required, I am now free to consider more options. My basic income needs are now secure with the start of the state pension which will rise year on year to keep pace with inflation. The capital which has been used in my SIPP and ISA to generate the income needed to live on over the past 10 years is now released for other uses. I could think about a better house in a more expensive area...my final move maybe... and also consider a combination of capital preservation and a return to some options for growth. Some themes I have in mind would be technology, biotech, new wave energy and AI/robotics.


Where I am up to now?

Now in my mid 60s, I am hoping for another 20 years if I am lucky. Well, the first thing to say is I accept there are no perfect strategies - what works for one investor possibly will not work out for another. Also, each person will be at a slightly different stage, different goals, varying timeframe etc. The can therefore be no 'one-size-fits-all'.

That said, obviously some strategies have more chance of a good outcome compared to others.

I am hoping equities will continue to provide a better return than bonds so I will continue to tilt in their favour for a while longer. The UK income trusts have done the job required but global diversity is a better option. The resignations of the Brexit secretary followed by the Foreign Secretary today has thrown the whole process into turmoil and I suspect this will put further pressures on sterling for some time.


I was fascinated by the research highlighted in a recent post which suggested the higher returns from equities were generated by just a handful of individual stocks. Therefore to have a chance of generating this outperformance over bonds, I need a global index fund which should include the 1 in 20 companies which deliver or hold an actively managed fund which has a good chance of identifying and holding some of these big performers in its portfolio.

I will therefore continue working towards a core of global low cost multi-asset such as my Lifestrategy, HSBC Global Strategy etc. which will increase to around 60% of my portfolio (currently 40%) and then several satellite holdings of actively managed globally diverse funds such as Scottish Mortgage and Mid Wynd which can hopefully add a little extra return.
 
(click to enlarge)

My UK equity income trusts and other income holdings are no longer needed so I will be looking to replace them at some point. My managed investment trusts have provided mixed returns in recent years. Some have done very well - Nick Train’s Finsbury Growth & Income and smaller company specialist Aberforth for example, others are more 'steady Eddies' such as City of London - whilst others have struggled - for example Edinburgh which has now been sold.

All the evidence suggests that most actively managed funds do not consistently beat the market over time - but some do! For example Finsbury, Aberforth, Polar Capital Technology and Scottish Mortgage have outstanding records over the past decade despite taking a huge 50% hit to their share prices in the market turmoil of late 2008.

I know I can never achieve a perfect portfolio - I am continuing to believe in the concept of ‘good enough’.

Feel free to share any thoughts with others in the comments section below - how is your strategy evolving?

16 comments:

  1. Ciao DIY,
    very nice post this one, since I started investing and reporting my endeavours online I was always curious about the strategies and decisions that other investors take. It seems that you have everything planned, also the switch to a world based fund, which I guess you are opting for in order to get more stability out of the investment.
    As to your reference to "moving", I am considering more and more to move to a place where the money I have is worth more than in my homeland. Right now it's just wishful thinking, I can't move from Italy for a series of reasons, but it's something that I do not want to "let go". I see people who retired here and apart from some odd cases most of the individuals I know don't really have a "grand" retirement at all.
    Anyhow nice post and thanks for sharing as usual!
    Ciao ciao
    Stal

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    1. Good to hear from you Stal.

      I don't know about having things planned...it has only really dawned on me in the past month or so that I can dispense with my income trusts!

      Interesting to hear you are considering a move away from Italy. How does you new wife feel about a possible move away? What would be your ideal destination? I saw a story recently where a deserted town in rural Italy was offering to pay outsiders to relocate there..it sounded quite tempting, very peaceful.

      Everywhere is going crazy here with our team getting to the semi finals of the World Cup...No Brazil, Argentina, Germany...could go all the way like 1966!

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  2. So you made it!! Congratulations!
    "As generating income is no longer required..."
    If you have got yourself in a situation where you are living ( I assume mortgage free) and can live happily ever after on the state pension, with a fair whack in the bank, then I guess you can live with complete security and serenity from now on.
    If I were you, I would spend some of the income from the investments. You have worked for it. Your money is now working hard for you. You owe it to the money to enjoy it!!
    Maybe set yourself a rule of treating yourself once a year or something, and spending no more than 50% of the dividend income, and then re-invest the rest.
    State Pension - Food, Electricity, etc
    50% Dividends/Income - Splurge on luxuries
    50% Dividends/Income - Re-invested.

    Even if you like to live a frugal life, surely you are desperate to see if a £200 bottle of wine during sunset on the Amalfi is all its cracked up to be?

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    1. Thanks QT.

      Yep, mortgage free for 20 yrs and I no longer need to think about generating income from investments for living expenses as this is now secured by state pension.

      The image of relaxing on the Amalfi coast is a good one but as I do not hold a passport, I will have to be content with sunny Llandudno..maybe some nice fish n chips and a pint of warm beer!

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    2. Brilliant! Did you start saving/investing before or after the mortgage was paid off? When you had a mortgage, if you had say £100 of "profit", where would you allocate each £1, paying down the debt or purchasing investments?

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    3. I guess I have always been a saver. I started investing in the late 1980s, the mortgage was paid off in the late 1990s.

      As to invest or pay down mortgage, to some extent depends on the mortgage rates. If you have a 2% deal on the mortgage and can get an average of 6% return on investments, it makes no sense to pay down the mortgage.

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  3. You are doing great - congrats on making it and getting your hands on that state pension. It's fascinating to see how things evolve as people as get older, and I wonder how I will start changing my portfolio then.

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    1. Many thanks Ms ZiYou. I guess we all change our strategies as we get closer to the destination/goals and also as we gain more experience of what works for us and what doesn't.

      Good luck with your move towards early retirement.

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  4. Thank you so much for your regular updates. As a relatively newcomer to the world of investing I always find your posts most helpful.

    I'm intrigued by your decision to hold several low cost mixed asset funds (Vanguard, HSBC etc) rather than just the one. What is the reasoning behind this? And why not just one eg the Vanguard LS fund?
    Do you think there's an advantage to holding a fund like Vanguard LS over, say, VWRL (FTSE All World ETF) together with a global bond tracker or ETF?

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    1. Cheers sprong and really good to hear you are finding the blog helpful.

      Yes, I could easily get by with just the Lifestrategy 60 fund...this was the whole point of my book 'DIY Simple Investing' after all. It is slightly more expensive than holding the two funds you mention but then again it has the benefit of constant rebalancing so whatever feature means an investor can fire n forget is a bonus.

      As to HSBC global strategy..this was suggested by someone a year or so back and here is an article on a comparison

      http://diyinvestoruk.blogspot.com/2017/06/a-look-at-hsbc-global-strategy-fund.html

      The VLS 60 & 40 are my largest holdings but I thought I would add HSBC to see how it performed in real life so to speak.

      Good luck with you investing journey!

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  5. Great post! Congrats on reaching SPA. I liked your ending: "good enough". There's a Swedish word for it: "lagom" a good word to live by.

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    1. Thanks for introducing the Swedish equivalent YFG...less is more! I also like their concept of 'hygge' with its emphasis on embracing the simple pleasures in life.

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  6. As mentioned in our Twitter convo, what a fantastic position to be in that you need to reduce your income yielding investments as you don't need the income! :-)

    Like you, I've binned EDIN and have now replaced this with FGT, which I've had my eye on for a while. However, I'm still trying to build up my income so will continue to add to those investments, although I will cut down the number of different ones I hold at some point.

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    1. Thanks weenie, of course Edinburgh is bound to become a star performer over the coming year...

      You may have outlined your strategy for income investments previously, if so apologies but I was wondering why you have selected this option (rather than growth for example) as I am guessing you do not need the income as you have a salary from your job. Do you like the idea of building a growing dividend stream and do you believe it offers a superior return to say your global multi asset investments? Possibly a topic for a post?

      Good luck with your FGT, I hope it continues to deliver for us both. Although I will be slimming down my income investments I will probably retain this and Aberforth Smaller.

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  7. Haha, well I'm not going to check on how Edinburgh does from now on - that's like checking lotto numbers but not actually buying a ticket!

    I guess my strategy does seem a little weird in that I don't need the income right now and should go for growth. However, as you have correctly pointed out, I like the idea of building a growing dividend stream, the returns are better than my passive investments, but also for piece of mind, I needed to prove to myself that such an income can be generated. What I didn't want to do was to go all in with growth, switch to income when I need it, only to find that the income is not enough for my purposes.

    I reinvest the income (along with any new capital) using the regular investment facility which costs me £1.50 or reinvest in funds which is free. If it was expensive to reinvest, I wouldn't be using this strategy.

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    1. Thanks for that weenie...makes sense to trial a method before you need to use it for real to see if it would work ok. Also interested to see the returns from your income funds exceed your passives.

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