One of
the benefits of having my own blog is the opportunity to have a say on anything
I like. Of course most of the articles I
write are on investments and personal finance related matters. A couple of years
back I wanted to put down some of my thoughts on the Brexit debate and outcome.
At times it seems like the country has spoken of little else since then and now
at the second anniversary there will be more media debate and analysis so
apologies in advance and if this subject is a real turn-off ...feel free to
skip.
So,
June 24th 2016 and I was very surprised at the outcome given all the dire
warnings of immediate economic armageddon if we voted to leave from just about
every establishment figure from George Osbourne (who?), Mark Carney, Christine
Lagarde from the MFI, Barak Obama and a host of so called experts and economists.
Indeed we were told there would need to
be an emergency budget the day after if we voted 'Leave'.
Here is my last post which summed up my thoughts on the matter shortly after the referendum.
The
Treasury estimated that up to 820,000 jobs would disappear within two years of
a vote to leave. Two years on and the reality is that more Brits are in work
than at any time since records began. There are now over 1.5 million more jobs
created since the referendum...currently ~32 million.
The
Democratic Process
In
years past, one way to resolve an issue would be an armed battle between two
sides. I think we have moved on a little since then and most sensible people
would agree that this method is a bit crude and unsophisticated and maybe the
better solution is to debate the issues and then have a vote. Of course, the
vote must be free and fair and everyone affected should take part. This is
democracy and it only works if both sides agree beforehand to accept the outcome...if
one side does not accept the outcome then we may well return to the old ways of
doing things.
We
have a general election every five years. There are some close results,
sometimes within just one or two votes either way and there could be several
recounts but it is traditional that one person is elected and the losers accept
the decision of the voters. They can redouble their efforts next time round.
So,
there was a debate in Parliament in June 2015 on whether to hold a referendum
and after all the debates, the MPs overwhelmingly voted by 544 to 53 to hold a
referendum on whether we should leave or remain in the EU. This was also
supported by the House of Lords. It would be decided by a simple majority of
50% +1. There would be a simple question - "Should the UK remain a member
of the EU or leave the EU?". Everyone aged 18 or over could vote.
The
government sent out a leaflet before the referendum advocating a vote for
'Remain' with a promise that it would implement the decision of the electorate.
What
is more, everyone's vote counted unlike a general election when voting is on a
constituency level and many votes are 'wasted'. In the referendum, every vote
for and against in every part of the UK counted and when every vote had been
counted the final figure was 'Remain' 16.1 million (48.1%) and for 'Leave' 17.4
million (51.9%). The turnout on the 23rd June was very high at over 72%. If the majority of 1.3 million people were to stand finger tip to finger tip, the line would stretch from the UK to the football World Cup in Russia. Here's
the BBC results breakdown
The
Aftermath
Like
most people in the country, I was surprised by the outcome. I voted to leave
but really did not expect the majority would vote to leave. I thought it may be
close but I was of the opinion that it would be 55% remain similar to the
referendum in Scotland in 2014.
I
would have been disappointed but I would have accepted the outcome like a good
democrat and moved on.
A
year later and we had another general election which placed Brexit firmly at
the top of the agenda. There was not much difference between Labour and
Conservative.
"As
we leave the EU, we will no longer be members of the single market or customs
union" Conservative Manifesto 2017
Immediately
after the election, John
McDonnell said “I think people will interpret
membership of the single market as not respecting that referendum.” This was
consistent with Labour’s manifesto, which promised to retain the “benefits or
the single market and the customs union” without being a member of either.
The
Liberal Democrats offered an alternative to the main parties with their pledge
of a second EU referendum on the Brexit deal.
The
Tories increased their share of the vote to 42.4% but lost 13 seats and their
majority, Labour narrowed the gap increasing their share to 40% and gained 30 seats and Lib Dems
managed just 7.4% of the vote and a gain of 4 seats. The big losers were the SNP who
lost 21 seats and UKIP who lost their only MP and managed just 1.8% of the vote
compared to 13% in 2015.
Of
course there has been much analysis and discussion post the referendum. I have
seen articles which suggested 'leave' voters were too stupid to realise what
they were voting for. I think what has caused most disappointment/sadness on a
personal level is the refusal on the part of a hardcore of remain voters to accept the outcome. I can understand their disappointment and maybe shock/disbelief but surely the
very essence of out democracy is that we accept the decision of the majority.
For sure those
33 million people who cast a vote cannot possibly have understood all the
implications of the vote. For me, I guess mostly it was a 'gut feel' like
so many other decisions in life which defy precise logical analysis. Yes I read
the papers and listened to the TV debated in the lead up. I discussed with
friends and relatives and researched online but at some point, maybe a month or
so beforehand, I had more or less made my decision. I will not know until maybe
10 years after we have left (if we actually leave) whether it was a good
decision or completely bonkers. If I had to vote again tomorrow, it would be
exactly the same.
I
am very much of the same opinion as MSE's Martin Lewis who made the point
"The principle of our democratic process far outweighs any benefits from
remaining in the EU" (Question Time 3/5/18)
There
have been challenges in the courts, calls for the referendum to be run again,
objections from the SNP who think the result should not apply to them because
Scotland voted remain - even though a year earlier they lost their own
referendum as Scotland voted to remain as a part of the UK.
There
have been anti Brexit rallies in London, Oxford, Bristol and elsewhere and now
we have a campaign from the usual suspects...Chuka Umunna, Anna Soubury, Lord
Adonis, the Lib Dems/Greens for a 'people's vote' on the final deal organised
by remainers whose motives I mistrust as I believe they really don't accept the
decision of 2016 and don't want our elected MPs in Parliament (all elected
after the referendum) to have the final say on whatever deal is agreed with the
EU after 2 years of intense negotiations.
It
is not surprising these anti-Brexit rallies are in London and university town
as the clever people tended to vote remain. I noted at the time that 29 out of 30 areas with the most graduates voted 'Remain' whilst 28 out of 30 areas with the fewest graduates voted 'Leave'. I have seen figures which suggest
as many as 80% of under 40s with a degree voted remain. However, when it comes
to democracy, everyone's vote carries equal weight. Having a degree does not
mean their vote is worth more and believing you know more than others does not
confer a right to override the decision of the majority.
The fact these people
are persisting in their efforts to undermine the referendum reflects their
misplaced sense of superiority and demonstrates how out of touch they are with
ordinary people. Whilst purporting to promote liberal values, social mobility
and inclusion these clever people hold in contempt the poorer working-class
people from the North who despite all the warnings of dire consequences voted
leave and refused to bow down to the so-called experts.
For
me, a referendum on the final deal is a non-starter. It would undermine the
2016 referendum. If the Brexit vote was about anything, it was about sovereignty
and returning power from the EU to our Parliament. Therefore it should be our
elected MPs in the Commons who have the last word on the final deal when the negotiations are concluded.
I
can accept that these people are not happy with the decision to leave. I can accept they genuinely believe that leaving the EU will be a disaster for our economy and jobs but it
seems to me that just as I cannot possibly know how things will turn out after we leave,
neither can the remainers...it may not be so good but also it may work out
better than they fear. The most legitimate course in my humble opinion, would
be to wait a reasonable time after we actually leave to see how things settle
down and how our economy performs and if not happy after say 5 years, THEN
start a campaign to rejoin the EU.
Of
course, no one can predict the longer term consequences of leaving but so far
it has been business as usual but then again we have not yet left. Of course
there is no shortage of clever people who 'know' this will be a huge mistake
and want to save us from a dire future. They are driven by fear of the unknown
and prejudice which is understandable as they probably have more to lose than
some other less educated people however for all their further education, in
reality, they have no more insight into how things will turn out than the rest
of us.
In..Out..Shake It All About..
I
really believe that neither side will be served by an final outcome which is
half in, half out...that would be the worst outcome for the UK. Many want us to
remain as part of a customs union but that would mean we could not
independently strike our own trade deals with other countries and therefore
severely compromise our freedom as a sovereign country which I think was at the
heart of what those voting for leave actually wanted. We therefore need to find
a solution which results in independence and the UK becoming free to make our
way and, of course, free to make mistakes just as it was before 1974.
At
the end of the day, I believe the real division is not between those who voted one way or
the other. I believe it is between those who respect democracy and those who
persistently refuse to accept the outcome and are doing anything they can to
delay, reverse, obstruct and generally undermine. This is not good for our
country and for those involved in the negotiations with the EU. It is negative
and I strongly believe with just 9 months to go, we need more people to look at
the positives which could come out of all this if we approach things with
confidence and optimism.
If
the final outcome is a UK which is little different from how things were as
members of the EU then we will all end up the poorer. Brexit must happen,
democracy demands that the wishes of the 17.4 million people is respected...I
do not like to think about the consequences if the relatively small but influential group of clever people get their way
and we do not get what we voted for.
So,
where are you with all this? Did you vote leave or remain? Did you know what
you were voting for? Do you accept the outcome or are you not yet reconciled to
leave? Have your say in the comments below...we still have freedom of speech,
it's a democracy!